Bitcoin has a reputation for going up. It has earned that reputation by going down. A lot.
So we did something simple. We pulled every daily closing price for BTC-USD on Coinbase, from July 2015 to this week, 4,137 days of them, and looked for every time Bitcoin lost more than half its value from a record high.
It happened four times. Here's what each one looked like, and what the pattern teaches.
The short version
- Since 2015, Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from a record high four times. The worst was an 84% drop in 2018.
- Recoveries took anywhere from 3 months to almost 3 years to get back to the old high.
- The maths is brutal. After a 50% fall you need a 100% gain just to break even. After an 84% fall you need more than 500%.
- Right now Bitcoin is about 49% below its record close of $124,720 from October 2025.
- The worst single day in our data was 12 March 2020: down 39% in one day.
The four big falls
All figures are Coinbase BTC-USD daily closing prices. Intraday lows went deeper.
| Record high (close) | Bottom (close) | Fall | Days falling | Back above the old high | Peak to recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2017: $19,650 | 15 Dec 2018: $3,183 | -83.8% | 364 | 30 Nov 2020 | 1,080 days |
| 13 Apr 2021: $63,588 | 20 Jul 2021: $29,796 | -53.1% | 98 | 19 Oct 2021 | 189 days |
| 8 Nov 2021: $67,555 | 21 Nov 2022: $15,760 | -76.7% | 378 | 4 Mar 2024 | 847 days |
| 6 Oct 2025: $124,720 | 30 Jun 2026: $58,524 | -53.1% | 267 | Not yet | 404 days and counting |
A few things jump out.
The deep ones were slow. The two biggest falls each took about a year to hit bottom, then well over a year more to recover. Those weren't crashes so much as long, grinding winters.
One was fast. In 2021, Bitcoin halved in three months and got all of it back three months later. Same coin, completely different experience.
The current one is already one of the big four. From October 2025's record, Bitcoin fell 53% by the end of June 2026. As of this week's close of $64,119, it's still about 49% below that record.
The maths that makes recoveries slow
This is the part most people get wrong, and it matters more than any prediction.
Losses and gains aren't symmetrical. If something falls 50%, a 50% gain doesn't get you back. It gets you to 75% of where you started.
| If it falls | It needs to rise this much to break even |
|---|---|
| 20% | 25% |
| 50% | 100% |
| 77% | 329% |
| 84% | 517% |
So a coin that falls 84% has to multiply more than six times just to get back to where it started. That's why the 2018 recovery took almost three years. It wasn't that nothing happened. It's that the hole was enormous.
Today, getting from this week's close back to the October 2025 record would take a gain of about 95%.
The worst single day
On 12 March 2020, as Covid panic hit every market at once, Bitcoin's daily close on Coinbase was 39% below the day before. To put that in context, the next-worst day in our data was a 17% fall in January 2016.
Days like that are why we keep going on about leverage. Anyone borrowing to hold Bitcoin that morning had very little chance to react.
What this does, and doesn't, tell you
It does tell you that 50%+ falls aren't rare accidents for Bitcoin. They're part of how it has behaved: four times in eleven years of our data, sometimes years apart and once twice in the same year. If you can't stomach watching something halve, that's useful to know about yourself before it happens.
It doesn't tell you what happens next. Four episodes is a tiny sample, the world in 2026 isn't the world of 2018, and past recoveries are not a promise of future ones. Bitcoin recovering every time so far is a fact about the past, not a law of nature.
And remember, this is Bitcoin: the biggest, most traded coin. Smaller coins don't share its track record, and a big fall in a small coin carries no promise of a recovery at all.
What to watch
The current drawdown is the one to keep an eye on. Our weekly notes will track how far Bitcoin sits from its record each week, using the same Coinbase data and the same method.
Sources
- Daily prices: Coinbase Exchange public API, BTC-USD daily candles from 20 July 2015 to 15 November 2026 (4,137 days), retrieved 15 November 2026. Falls are measured from a closing high to the lowest close before a new closing high. "Back above the old high" is the first daily close above the previous record close.
- Coinbase Exchange API: product candles
- How MYEX calculates its numbers
This article is general market commentary for educational purposes. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose your entire investment.