Everyone knows crypto is "volatile". Almost nobody knows what that means in numbers.
So here are the numbers. We pulled every daily close for Bitcoin, Ether and Solana on Coinbase over the past year, the 365 days to 14 November 2026, and measured how much they actually move. Once you know what a normal day looks like, a scary day gets a lot less scary, and you'll know exactly how big a position you can stomach.
The short version
- A typical Bitcoin day moves about 1.2%. Half of all days moved less than that.
- Big days aren't rare. Bitcoin moved 5% or more on 18 days in the past year. Ether did it on 34 days, Solana on 39.
- The worst single days knocked about 14 to 15% off all three.
- Bigger coins move less. Ether's typical day was about a fifth bigger than Bitcoin's. Solana's was about half again.
- Size your position for the bad day, not the average one. If a 15% drop would make you panic, the position is too big.
The numbers
Daily moves over the 365 days to 14 November 2026, from Coinbase closing prices:
| Coin | Typical daily move | Days moving 5%+ | Worst day | Best day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 1.16% | 18 | -14.0% | +12.3% |
| Ether (ETH) | 1.38% | 34 | -14.9% | +17.5% |
| Solana (SOL) | 1.71% | 39 | -14.9% | +11.8% |
"Typical daily move" is the median: half of days moved more, half moved less.
Read that table the right way round. On most days, nothing dramatic happens. But roughly once every three weeks, Bitcoin has a 5% day, and Ether or Solana has one about every week and a half. If you hold crypto, you will see them. Plan for them.
What "annualised volatility" means (and why you can mostly ignore it)
You'll often see volatility quoted as a yearly percentage. By our numbers, Bitcoin's annualised volatility over the past year was about 44%. Ether's and Solana's were about 61 to 62%.
That's a statistician's way of saying "big". You don't need the formula. You need the gut feel: Bitcoin can easily move 20 to 40% in a year without anything being "wrong", and smaller coins move more.
The only volatility rule that matters: size for the bad day
Here's the rule that keeps people in the game:
- Pick the drop you'd have to live through. For a big coin, assume a 15% day and a 50% year. Both have happened recently. Bitcoin has halved four times since 2015.
- Do the maths on your position. $10,000 in Bitcoin on a 15% day is a $1,500 loss by dinner. On a 50% year, it's $5,000.
- Ask yourself honestly: would you hold, or would you sell at the bottom?
- If you'd sell, the position is too big. Make it smaller until the honest answer is "hold".
Volatility doesn't hurt people. Being too big for it does. And using borrowed money multiplies the problem, because a 10% move against a 10x leveraged position wipes it out entirely.
Questions people ask
How volatile is Bitcoin day to day?
Over the year to 14 November 2026, Bitcoin's median daily move on Coinbase was 1.16%, it moved 5% or more on 18 days, and its worst single day was a 14.0% fall.
Is Ethereum more volatile than Bitcoin?
Yes. Over the same year, Ether's median daily move was 1.38% against Bitcoin's 1.16%, and it had 34 days of 5% or larger moves compared with Bitcoin's 18.
What is annualised volatility in crypto?
It scales the typical size of daily price swings up to a yearly figure. Over the year to 14 November 2026, Bitcoin's was about 44% and Ether's about 61%, measured over the same period.
How much crypto should I hold given the volatility?
Size your position for a bad day rather than an average one. If a 15% daily fall or a 50% yearly fall in that amount would make you sell in a panic, the position is too large for you.
Sources
- Daily prices: Coinbase Exchange public API, BTC-USD, ETH-USD and SOL-USD daily candles for the 365 days to 14 November 2026, retrieved 15 November 2026. Moves are close-to-close; annualised figures use the standard deviation of daily returns multiplied by the square root of 365.
- Coinbase Exchange API: product candles
- Bitcoin crashes, in numbers